I am sorry to report that Special Servicing just went above $50B ($50,000,000,000). I know I will be persecuted by my hotel industry friends for “bearing bad tidings”, “declaring the sky is falling” and “spreading panic” by means of this hoteldefaultblog you are reading. (No one claims I am not being 100% truthful).
So here’s the utility of accurate information even if the news is bad:
SPECIAL SERVICERS- hire more senior asset managers and be more proactive! If you have not hired, you are behind the curve and the curve will dramatically steepen. Last Spring many of you thought hotel defaults would not go over 4%- they are over 12% today (that’s about $6Billion in hotel loans) and going over 25% by next summer (you read it here). Hotel NOI performance will continue to decline and won’t start to improve until October…of 2010.
OTHER HOTEL LENDERS- same advise as above, but you have a secret weapon Special Servicers don’t have – seller financing. Offer it and you will get 20-30% more for your asset; and you can sell it now before hotel values get worse. (Sorry but they will).
OWNERS- ok bury your head and don’t read this. Still here? Then go talk to your lender or Special Servicer with some fresh money in your hands or don’t expect to get any relief and to loose your hotel during 2010.
OPERATORS- Hire more direct sales staff and steal business from operators who are not reading this blog. Don’t promise 2010 performance you can’t deliver, as revenue will drop again next year.
Disclosure- the persecution dished out to me by friends amounts to making me buy the first round of drinks, but I manage to make up for it as the evening wears on…
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